I. Supply Chain Disruptions Trigger a Chain Reaction Crisis
War directly strikes the core industrial chain of pharmaceuticals and fine chemicals. In November 2025, the Perekop bromine plant in Crimea was attacked and paralyzed. As a major production base for bromine compounds in Eastern Europe, its annual output was valued at $150 million, resulting in supply shortages of key raw materials for pharmaceuticals, rubber and other industries. More broadly, logistics blockades have caused the shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz to plummet by 94%, halting 33% of global fertilizer trade and pharmaceutical raw material transportation that rely on this route, and driving up global pharmaceutical logistics costs. Volatile energy prices have worsened the dilemma: following the U.S.-Iran conflict, international oil prices rose to $144 per barrel, pushing up prices of basic chemical raw materials such as polypropylene by 65% in a single month. Small and medium-sized manufacturers were forced to make cash payments yet still faced severe supply shortages.
II. Polarized Demand Structure
Conflict zones have generated rigid emergency demand. More than 90% of medicines in many Middle Eastern and Eastern European countries depend on imports, and orders for first-aid kits, antibiotics and hemostatic materials have doubled year-on-year. Countries including France have activated medical reserves for “major military operations” and reserved 50,000 beds for wounded personnel. China has become the core supplier: from January to February 2026, China’s exports of emergency medical products to Iran grew by over 80%, while exports of antibiotics and anesthetics to Russia rose by 28%–55%. Meanwhile, demand for agrochemicals has bucked the trend. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz led to a weekly surge of over 15% in urea and sulfur prices, creating a supply bottleneck for global spring farming and forcing fertilizer producers to increase output to ensure supply.
III. Accelerated Restructuring and Upgrading of the Industry Landscape
War has driven “de-risking” adjustments in the global pharmaceutical and chemical supply chain. After Western pharmaceutical companies withdrew from conflict zones, China — with 45% of the world’s API production capacity and 70% of medical dressing output — has become the core alternative supplier for Russia, the Middle East and other regions. Opportunities have emerged for the overseas expansion of innovative drugs: in Q1 2026, the transaction value of China’s innovative drug out-licensing exceeded $60 billion, nearly matching the full-year figure for 2025. Enterprises have taken proactive self-help measures: leading firms stockpiled 15–20 days of core raw materials and adjusted production capacity ratios to cope with fluctuations, while small and medium-sized manufacturers scaled back non-essential product lines, further increasing industry concentration.
Conclusion: Seeking Opportunities Amid Crisis
The impact of war on the pharmaceutical and chemical industry is essentially a test of supply chain resilience and emergency response capabilities. Enterprises must strengthen self-sufficiency and control over core raw materials, and develop diversified supply channels. Meanwhile, they should seize rigid markets such as emergency medical care and strategic reserves, and enhance product added value through technological innovation. For the country, establishing a strategic reserve system for pharmaceuticals and chemicals and improving industrial chain security early warning mechanisms have become critical to safeguarding people’s livelihood and industrial security.
